Wow. So not a good day. I stopped out of FWLT for a loss. While I think it is a great company still, it seems to want to follow along with the other energy names that are getting terribly punished. However, now my exposure is small and I have raised cash in the meantime. I also started a married put position on SPY (July puts) to hedge the portfolio overall, not just UPRO. Terex has erased almost all of its gains from last week, but I will not look to stop out of it because at 16, and clearer visibility than Foster Wheeler, I will just look to add more below for a heist long-term.
Investing takes risk, patience, discipline, and prudence- among others. I am trying to exercise all here. My advice for you is to do the same. You could always try short-term trading or scalping the quick moves down, but at the end of the day, these are timing tricks. I have learned over the years that trying to time the market is a trap; if you were constantly successful timing and trading this market on your own, congrats – that would make you even better than the pros.
I’m looking to get more defensive if we break the 200, if the VIX breaks past 25 – which, if it doesn’t, it would easily make a double top pattern and therefore a double bottom in the S&P, and if our jobs numbers don’t get any better. (disappointing numbers came out this morning). I think we can move on without Europe. Yes the Spanish and Italian debt spreads are getting worse and Greece is complaining again, blah blah, but that is old news that we should have priced in by now. People are saying we had a decent correction of 10%, but (not with the volatility that we needed). Give me some other excuses, especially ones that have nothing to do with companies making money.